نماذج السلاسل الزمنية المتكاملة للتنبؤ بأعداد المروجين للمخدرات شهريا في السودان خلال الفترة 2016-2021م

Abstract

 Drugs represent a real threat to the health and security of humans, societies, countries, and civilizations. We find that drug abuse and promotion represent the most dangerous threats facing countries and societies, especially after promoters have invented new and more widespread methods through social networking sites, electronic marketing, and illicit activities. the study aimed  to build a mathematical model.

 It is possible to predict the numbers of monthly drug pushers in Sudan, to predict the numbers of monthly drug pushers in Sudan during the period (2022-2026) AD. The study used the descriptive analytical approach, where the descriptive aspect was represented in finding descriptive statistics of the data for monthly drug pushers, while the analytical aspect was represented in building models. And comparing them to choose the optimal model, the study relied on secondary data collected from the Ministry of Interior. The study  reached a number of results, the most important of which are: The series of data for drug pushers in Sudan during the period January 2017 AD - December 2022 AD is stationary, and is the appropriate model for predicting the future values ​​of drug pushers in Sudan. It is ARIMA (0,0,1) and the predictive values ​​for monthly drug pushers in Sudan for the period from 2022 AD - 2026 AD showed a general increasing trend over time. The study concluded with a number of recommendations, the most important of which are: The authorities concerned with combating drugs in Sudan must develop plans and programs that contribute to combating drug abuse. And drug promotion during the period (2022-2026), using civil mechanisms and techniques to keep pace with the development in the drug crime market and raising the level of quality of performance of those working in the field of drug control and raising their capabilities and developing their skills, introducing awareness programs and introducing the harms and dangers of drugs within educational programs for the basic, secondary and university stages each. With an appropriate dose of awareness and activating media work aimed at visual, audio and written awareness to prevent falling into the danger of drugs